It’s Preliminary Final time in the AFL and tonight at the MCG Richmond are the warm $1.34 favourites with Geelong rated a $3.40 chance.
Richmond are hitting top gear at the right time of the season while Geelong have been stung with the injury to key playmaker Mitch Duncan as well as the suspension of power forward Tom Hawkins.
The Tigers have also had the luxury of a week off to freshen up after their week one win over Brisbane while Geelong bounced back from their week one loss to Collingwood with a 20 point win over West Coast in week two.
Star Tiger Dustin Martin looms as a key figure in this match. His last 8 weeks of football have been close to career best and in the first final he was dynamite slotting 6 majors. He will take a power of stopping.
I think Richmond are peaking and I am happy to back them to win as well as at the line to win by 20 points or more.
In the other Preliminary Final Collingwood are paying $1.30 while GWS are the $3.60 outsiders.
Collingwood were 10 point winners over the Cats in week one while GWS have defeated the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane on their path to the Preliminary final.
In a similar scenario to the first of the Prelim finals the favoured team with a week off look to have the favours with Collingwood in a good space while GWS have lost Toby Greene to suspension and Lachie Whitfield to illness.
The Pies with home ground advantage look the goods – I expect them to win and win well.
I am having two multis. The two favoured teams Richmond and Collingwood to win which is paying $1.74 and can be used as a multi base for the weekend and a line multi with Richmond to win by 20 points or more and Collingwood to win by 22 points or more which is paying $3.64.
First Goal Scoring plays are Tom Lynch at $7 and Patrick Dangerfield at $11 while in the Collingwood v GWS match I’ll stick with Jeremy Cameron at $7.50 and Jamie Elliott at $9.
I’ll take a multi with Melbourne and South Sydney to both win their finals. The multi price is $2.00.
CRICKET – DOMESTIC ONE DAYERS
WA will field a very strong lineup for their first domestic fixture of the season against Victoria tomorrow at the WACA.
I think the $1.85 on offer for them to win is nice and will include it in a couple of the multis mentioned above.
In Most Runs betting I have backed Shaun Marsh at $3 and Aaron Finch at $3 while in Most Wickets betting I have backed Jhye Richardson at $3.50.
My best bets of the weekend are as follows :
Caulfield Saturday Race 5 Number 4 Pippie (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $2.05) : Speed Demon who has been ultra-impressive in all three starts this campaign leading at a good tempo before clicking up and extending nicely late in her races. Again looks likely to roll to the top and dictate and she is rock hard fit after her three recent runs. Very hard to stop.
Randwick Saturday Race 3 Number 11 Junipal (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $4.20) : Proven wet tracker who should relish the heavy conditions on offer. Heads into this race in good form with a win and three placings from his last four starts and this event looks very suitable. Has had 2 tries on heavy previously for a win and a second.
Randwick Saturday Race 9 Number 7 Greyworm (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $4.40) : Handy campaigner who chimed in nicely at his most recent performance when winning over the 1200 metres at Rosehill on a heavy track. Loves racing over this trip where he has had four tries for 3 wins and a second. Gets conditions to suit and should be right in the finish again.
Belmont Saturday Race 9 Number 1 Alpha Sky (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $7) : Took his game to another level last preparation when winning four races and looked smart in doing so. Has had two tries first up in the past and won both of them and two starts over this distance in the past and won both of them. Meets some quality opposition here but I liked what I saw last campaign and am more than happy to be aboard at the $7 each way.
Cannington Saturday Race 6 Number 1 Outshined (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price Not Available) : Aims up at a winning hat-trick here and has drawn ideally. On a tough night looked one of the better winning hopes. I’ll also be backing 4-1 Petria Monelli each way and 3-3 Peppertide.